How to estimate your finish time in a trail race
In trail running, distance alone does not predict time. How to factor in elevation, terrain and your vertical speed.
On the road, knowing your pace lets you predict your time quite accurately. In the mountains it doesn't: two 30 km races can have finish times hours apart.
What to take into account
- Distance: the base, but not enough.
- Climbing: every 100 metres up adds time according to your vertical speed.
- Descending: downhills cost too, especially technical ones.
- Terrain: a gravel road is not a rocky trail.
- Duration: the longer it is, the more fatigue shows in your pace.
The effort kilometre
A simple rule: add one kilometre for every 100 metres of climbing to the real distance. A 30 km race with 1,500 m of climbing equals about 45 "effort kilometres". It's a useful approximation, although it ignores how you climb and descend.
With your own data
The estimate improves a lot if it uses your real uphill and downhill vertical speed and your flat pace. Traincontrol forecasts your goal races from their distance, elevation and terrain, and keeps adjusting as your fitness changes.